Obama Closes to Within 5 Points of Clinton in Pennsylvania

News Type: Event — Seeded on Tue Apr 1, 2008 11:50 AM EDT

Article Source: Our Republic

politics, barack-obama, hillary-clinton, election-2008, poll, pennsylvania, april-1

Rasmussen's latest survey of likely voters in Pennsylvania shows Clinton struggling to hold on to her lead. While Clinton entered March with a 15 point lead, Obama has closed the gap to 5 with 11 percent still undecided. Sen. Bob Casey's endorsement was undoubtedly significant, as was Clinton's ficticious tale of landing in Bosnia under sniper fire. The poll had a sample size of 730 and margin of error of +-4.

To win Pennsylvania, Obama will need to make inroads into a sixteen-point Clinton lead on the economy while expanding his own seventeen-point lead on the war in Iraq. So far, so good.

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{"commentId":1644243,"authorDomain":"1stcontact"}

Pavilion

Go Obama!!!

And Pennsylvania - any of you out there doing the footwork - GREAT JOB - Keep up the good work.

{"commentId":1644243,"threadId":"243679","contentId":"1403849","authorDomain":"1stcontact"}

15 votes

#1 - Tue Apr 1, 2008 1:50 PM EDT

{"commentId":1644256,"authorDomain":"stevehouse"}

SteveHouse

I'm not sure this is due so much to footwork from Obamacans as it is Hillary's foot-in-mouth disease, tbh. She's just starting to sound more ridiculous by the minute.

{"commentId":1644256,"threadId":"243679","contentId":"1403849","authorDomain":"stevehouse"}

10 votes

#1.1 - Tue Apr 1, 2008 1:54 PM EDT

{"commentId":1644340,"authorDomain":"1stcontact"}

Pavilion

Oh - I think Hillary gets most of the credit. The boomerang effect is in full swing. But, I know folks have been on the ground in PA, registering voters for weeks.

They deserve congrats, as well. Although, I'd be the first to say, "don't stop now, don't stop until the last poll closes, because you can't believe the polls".

{"commentId":1644340,"threadId":"243679","contentId":"1403849","authorDomain":"1stcontact"}

12 votes

#1.2 - Tue Apr 1, 2008 2:15 PM EDT

{"commentId":1644379,"authorDomain":"acidreflux"}

AdipicAcid

Yes. Remember when LaMont "defeated" Lieberman? This isn't over yet, so don't celebrate prematurely.

{"commentId":1644379,"threadId":"243679","contentId":"1403849","authorDomain":"acidreflux"}

#1.3 - Tue Apr 1, 2008 2:22 PM EDT

{"commentId":1644642,"authorDomain":"roybatty"}

Roy Batty

This is a trend we have seen oft repeated. Clinton leads in a state, Obama campaigns in that state, people learn about Obama, Obama goes up in the polls.

Obama has on-the-ground and fundraising abilities Clinton just can't match. Add that to her hoof-in-mouth disease, this is not at all surprising.

{"commentId":1644642,"threadId":"243679","contentId":"1403849","authorDomain":"roybatty"}

7 votes

#1.4 - Tue Apr 1, 2008 3:24 PM EDT

{"commentId":1644867,"authorDomain":"gpnavonod"}

gpnavonod

This is a trend we have seen oft repeated. Clinton leads in a state, Obama campaigns in that state, people learn about Obama, Obama goes up in the polls.

Amazing?...I'd have thought the opposite!

{"commentId":1644867,"threadId":"243679","contentId":"1403849","authorDomain":"gpnavonod"}

3 votes

#1.5 - Tue Apr 1, 2008 4:30 PM EDT

{"commentId":1645512,"authorDomain":"kevindicks"}

Kevin Dicks

You can think the opposite all you like, if you'd been paying attention you'd know that this is what happens over and over again. It's because Obama's message is better. It's because more people can identify with him.

{"commentId":1645512,"threadId":"243679","contentId":"1403849","authorDomain":"kevindicks"}

10 votes

#1.6 - Tue Apr 1, 2008 7:47 PM EDT

{"commentId":1646305,"authorDomain":"sheep"}

evano

It helps if you just read the polls that agree with your wishes. Rasmussen has Clinton by 5 points -- with a MOE of ±4 points -- while the last poll by PublicPolicyPolling has her up by 26 points, SurveyUSA, ARG & Quinnipiac have her at +12, and Franklin-Marshall has her at +16.

RealClearPolitics puts the weighted average of the polls at 14.2% advantage for Senator Clinton. Senator Obama's trend is definitely upwards, but only the naive ignore evidence that doesn't reinforce their prejudices.

{"commentId":1646305,"threadId":"243679","contentId":"1403849","authorDomain":"sheep"}

3 votes

#1.7 - Wed Apr 2, 2008 1:51 AM EDT

{"commentId":1646690,"authorDomain":"1stcontact"}

Pavilion

RealClearPolitics puts the weighted average of the polls at 14.2% advantage for Senator Clinton. Senator Obama's trend is definitely upwards, but only the naive ignore evidence that doesn't reinforce their prejudices.

Evano - you are right. One should pay attention to the whole picture. And you are right, Obama's trend is definitely upward.

And - if one looks into the details of the SurveyUSA (which still has Hillary with a 12 pt advantage) one can really see where Obama is gaining steam.

However, the poll showed Obama gaining ground in the Keystone State, particularly in cities like Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, and among older voters, men and conservative Democrats.

Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released three weeks ago, Clinton is down two points and Obama is up five, with Clinton's previous 19-point lead cut to 12, the survey found.

The movement in support came almost entirely from men, according to the survey results. Clinton had led by five points but now trails by seven -- a 12-point swing to Obama.

.....

In southeast Pennsylvania, which includes Philadelphia and makes up 43 percent of likely Democratic voters, the candidates have traded places: Clinton had been up two points but is now down three. In southwest Pennsylvania, which includes Pittsburgh, Clinton had led by 31, but now is at 17, a 14-point swing to Obama.

Obama doesn't have PA in his back pocket, not by a long-shot. But, he's got plenty of time left to close the gap - and the polls show he is doing just that.

{"commentId":1646690,"threadId":"243679","contentId":"1403849","authorDomain":"1stcontact"}

4 votes

#1.8 - Wed Apr 2, 2008 8:13 AM EDT

{"commentId":1646929,"authorDomain":"sheep"}

evano

Thanks for the rational response, Pavilion. Senator Obama is trending upwards as he does in any state he campaigns heavily in. He's a great campaigner, no question about it. Whether he can continue to narrow Senator Clinton's lead much further is an open question, which we should all approach intelligently and honestly, no matter which candidate we are loyal to. It's becoming more and more difficult to find that intelligence and honesty around here, so I definitely appreciate your research and your considered remarks.

{"commentId":1646929,"threadId":"243679","contentId":"1403849","authorDomain":"sheep"}

3 votes

#1.9 - Wed Apr 2, 2008 9:34 AM EDT

{"commentId":1647666,"authorDomain":"1stcontact"}

Pavilion

Evano:

Thanks for the rational response

No problem - you may want to check out today's numbers. They just keep getting better:)

Public Policy Polling: Clinton - 43%, Obama 45% (Obama is up by 2 points)
Real Clear Politics Average for this week: Clinton 48.3%, Obama 42.3% (Clinton up by 6.0)

The numbers are swinging Obama's direction. :)

{"commentId":1647666,"threadId":"243679","contentId":"1403849","authorDomain":"1stcontact"}

2 votes

#1.10 - Wed Apr 2, 2008 12:12 PM EDT

{"commentId":1647758,"authorDomain":"kevindicks"}

Kevin Dicks

It's also important to look at the dates the polls were taken when looking at all polls.

{"commentId":1647758,"threadId":"243679","contentId":"1403849","authorDomain":"kevindicks"}

3 votes

#1.11 - Wed Apr 2, 2008 12:28 PM EDT

{"commentId":1705117,"authorDomain":"gpnavonod"}

gpnavonod

Kevin DicksYou can think the opposite all you like, if you'd been paying attention you'd know that this is what happens over and over again. It's because Obama's message is better. It's because more people can identify with him.

Thanks Kevin...I don't know what I'd do without your "ok"....
I was thinking that the more you campaign the higher your numbers would be...logically.
But I bow to the far left ...who dominate NewsVine... Thank God ...not the country. Us poor lonely Moderate Democrats will have to find a shelter for the next 4 years.

{"commentId":1705117,"threadId":"243679","contentId":"1403849","authorDomain":"gpnavonod"}

#1.12 - Thu Apr 17, 2008 8:40 PM EDT

{"commentId":1644319,"authorDomain":"We-The-People"}

Independent Rob

Honestly, I think this has more to do with raising the expectations of Obama, so that it will look bad when he loses. It has happen in every state.

Hillary was sure to win OHIO, but moments before the primary, they raise the expectations of Obama, making the defeat more painful for his supporters
Same with California, Texas, and so on. But in contrast, States Obama is polled to win, the expectations for Clinton are always low, making it a write-off and something she expected anyway. Some of which she didn't even show up, making the defeats a "so what" kind of defeat.

The truth is, PA is a very difficult state for Obama, but I like the fact that he gives every state his all. But lets be fair about the expectation game being played. PA is Hillary Country and should be expected to win big.

{"commentId":1644319,"threadId":"243679","contentId":"1403849","authorDomain":"We-The-People"}

5 votes

#2 - Tue Apr 1, 2008 2:10 PM EDT

{"commentId":1644503,"authorDomain":"agio"}

agio

Win, yes. We'll see if she wins "big."

{"commentId":1644503,"threadId":"243679","contentId":"1403849","authorDomain":"agio"}

5 votes

#2.1 - Tue Apr 1, 2008 2:50 PM EDT

{"commentId":1644526,"authorDomain":"We-The-People"}

Independent Rob

Well, I don't know if she will win big, but she should be expected to win big. But their camp are masters of the expectation game. They know how to keep the expectations Low.... Making the victories huge, and the defeats minor.

{"commentId":1644526,"threadId":"243679","contentId":"1403849","authorDomain":"We-The-People"}

5 votes

#2.2 - Tue Apr 1, 2008 2:58 PM EDT

{"commentId":1645013,"authorDomain":"agio"}

agio

The 30-second attention span of the press corps helps, too.

{"commentId":1645013,"threadId":"243679","contentId":"1403849","authorDomain":"agio"}

7 votes

#2.3 - Tue Apr 1, 2008 5:12 PM EDT

{"commentId":1645527,"authorDomain":"We-The-People"}

Independent Rob

That indeed most certainly helps :)

{"commentId":1645527,"threadId":"243679","contentId":"1403849","authorDomain":"We-The-People"}

3 votes

#2.4 - Tue Apr 1, 2008 7:54 PM EDT

{"commentId":1645865,"authorDomain":"candygrl11"}

Jazzy-255460

you make plenty of sense... and yes, she is the favorite but, as long as she doesn't win 70-30 (which she WON"T)... I could care less. He will definitely take my BEAUTIFUL state of CALIFORNIA in the general!!!

{"commentId":1645865,"threadId":"243679","contentId":"1403849","authorDomain":"candygrl11"}

3 votes

#2.5 - Tue Apr 1, 2008 10:09 PM EDT

{"commentId":1646244,"authorDomain":"gmarez"}

George Marez

Same with California, Texas, and so on.

The jury's still out on Texas, but Obama is leading there atm.

{"commentId":1646244,"threadId":"243679","contentId":"1403849","authorDomain":"gmarez"}

1 vote

#2.6 - Wed Apr 2, 2008 1:04 AM EDT

{"commentId":1646587,"authorDomain":"1stcontact"}

Pavilion

The jury's still out on Texas, but Obama is leading there atm.

Obama won TX

{"commentId":1646587,"threadId":"243679","contentId":"1403849","authorDomain":"1stcontact"}

3 votes

#2.7 - Wed Apr 2, 2008 7:15 AM EDT

{"commentId":1647859,"authorDomain":"gmarez"}

George Marez

Obama won TX

No. Results are not official until the June convention. And with results still at 41% counted, I am still holding my breath. Anxiously, but still holding my breath.

{"commentId":1647859,"threadId":"243679","contentId":"1403849","authorDomain":"gmarez"}

1 vote

#2.8 - Wed Apr 2, 2008 12:48 PM EDT

{"commentId":1644505,"authorDomain":"agio"}

agio

I should point out that today's SUSA poll shows Clinton with a larger lead. Though both show Obama closing over previous polls.

{"commentId":1644505,"threadId":"243679","contentId":"1403849","authorDomain":"agio"}

2 votes

#3 - Tue Apr 1, 2008 2:51 PM EDT

{"commentId":1644805,"authorDomain":"partisanhack"}

Partisan Hack

TOLD'Ja.

All he needs is to keep it in single digits, preferably in the 2-5 percent range. If he wins even by less than a perceentage then he's defied all of the conventional wisdom. Either way Hillary will be eliminated statistically between PA and NC - maybe not in an absolute sense but in all other senses, to be sure.

{"commentId":1644805,"threadId":"243679","contentId":"1403849","authorDomain":"partisanhack"}

1 vote

#4 - Tue Apr 1, 2008 4:16 PM EDT

{"commentId":1644843,"authorDomain":"JStranahan"}

Jimster

Watch it Barack. Hillary has a mean Right hook.

Remember, float like a butterfly, sting like a bee .

{"commentId":1644843,"threadId":"243679","contentId":"1403849","authorDomain":"JStranahan"}

6 votes

#5 - Tue Apr 1, 2008 4:26 PM EDT

{"commentId":1645486,"authorDomain":"conour-62"}

The Eagle Spirit

YES WE CAN

OBAMA WILL WIN THIS ELECTION AND EVENTUALLY BE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA.

{"commentId":1645486,"threadId":"243679","contentId":"1403849","authorDomain":"conour-62"}

5 votes

#6 - Tue Apr 1, 2008 7:40 PM EDT

{"commentId":1645591,"authorDomain":"partisanhack"}

Partisan Hack

Woo-hoo!

{"commentId":1645591,"threadId":"243679","contentId":"1403849","authorDomain":"partisanhack"}

5 votes

#6.1 - Tue Apr 1, 2008 8:11 PM EDT

{"commentId":1645605,"authorDomain":"roybatty"}

Roy Batty

I think Eagle Spirit is one of those Obama nuts. Well welcome to the fold!

I also see you are new to Newsvine ... Welcome!

{"commentId":1645605,"threadId":"243679","contentId":"1403849","authorDomain":"roybatty"}

3 votes

#6.2 - Tue Apr 1, 2008 8:16 PM EDT

{"commentId":1645655,"authorDomain":"agio"}

agio

Yes, welcome to the Vine.

And at the risk of being overly snarky to a new Viner:

the Caps Lock key is right above the Shift. Yours seems to be stuck on.

{"commentId":1645655,"threadId":"243679","contentId":"1403849","authorDomain":"agio"}

6 votes

#6.3 - Tue Apr 1, 2008 8:38 PM EDT

{"commentId":1646081,"authorDomain":"stevenp"}

Steven P.

I'm new to the Vine as well. Got a (low) tech Q for anyone who can help out.

How do I paste a quote into my comment? I've noticed other comments have quotes that are colored grey and have a vertical line to the left. I tried using the quote button and all but haven't succeeded.

thx in adv for yr help.

{"commentId":1646081,"threadId":"243679","contentId":"1403849","authorDomain":"stevenp"}

2 votes

#7 - Tue Apr 1, 2008 11:36 PM EDT

{"commentId":1646109,"authorDomain":"roybatty"}

Roy Batty

Steven P.--

Copy the text from the original post: Highlight the text then plress Ctrl-C
Paste the text into your message: Place cursor then Crtrl-V

To format the text as a quote: highlight the text, then press the Quote button. Note that the text in the preview may not immediately show the format change, but if you continue to type and edit you will see it....

Also, Welcome to Newsvine!

{"commentId":1646109,"threadId":"243679","contentId":"1403849","authorDomain":"roybatty"}

1 vote

#7.1 - Tue Apr 1, 2008 11:51 PM EDT

{"commentId":1647729,"authorDomain":"agio"}

agio

You can also surround your text with the <blockquote> and </blockquote> tags.

{"commentId":1647729,"threadId":"243679","contentId":"1403849","authorDomain":"agio"}

1 vote

#7.2 - Wed Apr 2, 2008 12:21 PM EDT

{"commentId":1649919,"authorDomain":"stevenp"}

Steven P.

Ray and agio, thx for the tip. I'll try it out.

{"commentId":1649919,"threadId":"243679","contentId":"1403849","authorDomain":"stevenp"}

#7.3 - Wed Apr 2, 2008 10:48 PM EDT

{"commentId":1646191,"authorDomain":"cpaul44"}

cecil paul

Obama will close the gap even further. If Hillary's support of NAFTA and her Bosnia fantasy is properly exposed by Obama via her White house Papers, he could very well win PA. Although you can never underestimate the Clinton's capacity for slime campaigning,they seem to have ran out on attacks on Obama. Notice her cold comedy on the bowling challenge to Obama. However they may return with a new Rev. Wright issue, Obama's experience vs hers, fear mongering on the 3am phone call and play the race baiting card as a last resort in PA. One hopes that Obama speaks to the economy more often. While his open house approach is good, he needs to make more solo statements to address the economic problems of the people of PA. Blue Collar PA workers have been hurting since the Clinton Presidency and NAFTA, right through to the Bush Presidency and the damage done to the economy by the Iraq War.

{"commentId":1646191,"threadId":"243679","contentId":"1403849","authorDomain":"cpaul44"}

2 votes

#8 - Wed Apr 2, 2008 12:35 AM EDT

{"canLink":false,"threadId":"243679","isPrivate":false}

	Rassmussen Poll for PA Primary - Clinton's lead drops to 5 points	Rassmussen Reports	Tue Apr 1	1
	Poll Update: Obama Closing the Gap in PA	politicususa.com	Wed Apr 2	0

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Obama Closes to Within 5 Points of Clinton in Pennsylvania

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